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Children of the baby-boomers are entering the time in life where investing is a serious thought. A growing independence from foreign energy sources. Housing prices are expected to finally bottom out. Add to that the technological advances continuing with innovation and a raging bull market is quite possibly around the corner. These are only four of the six trends introduced in The Raging Bull Thesis by Tobias Levkovich. Currently the chief U.S. stock strategist at Citi Investment Research & Analysis, he predicts “a major bull market will begin within the next year or so.

While many are hesitating to predict a bull market, Levkovich suggests it is more predictable. The parallel to the 1990s continues to grow as several economic comparisons can be made. The stock market fell in 1990 and housing prices nose-dived. The debt crisis was all too familiar to what we are seeing today.

“The sheer magnitude of mobility growth brings computing, the Internet, purchasing and entertainment in one’s palm and argues for significant investment in software, infrastructure, bandwidth and more efficient chips, batteries and production techniques. Fortunately, the U.S. remains the global IT leader,” says Levkovich.

American companies, including tech based busiensses, have long used the lower wages in Asian countries for manufacturing plants. However, with the 22% inflation in China’s wages last year U.S. businesses are moving manufacturing back to the United States. With relocation and the continuing rise of American oil and gas production, companies will be boosting the economy as products are once again produced locally.

In an upcoming article for Forbes Ken Fisher suggests “it’s a good time to buy, selectively.” He later recommends three tech stocks to invest in. This includes Garmin (GRMN) at 33, Symantec (SYMC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP).

Garmin (GRMN) has introduced more sophisticated outdoor recreational uses and shows promise. Symantec (SYMC) leads the world in computer software security systems. And Microchip Technology (MCHP) is a global leader in microcontrollers.

While the comparison to the 1990s isn’t perfect, the similarities are hard to ignore. The U.S. economy could experience a raging bull market in less than two years if Levkovich’s predictions come to fruition. He believes that it will only occur once “the major stock indexes reach new price highs.” This has not happened yet, but he continues to be optimistic.


 
 
"The U.S. economy remains almost comatose....The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression....Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations...will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the [banking] collapse, the real estate depression, the health-care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit."



This quote is from Time magazine...September 1992. Is it just me or does this sound really familiar?

 
 
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The continuing financial crisis in Greece, slowdown in China, and worries over the U.S. economy have kept investors on their toes with a bull-bear roller coaster market. But could there actually be a Dow 100,000 in the not too distant future?

This is the optimistic prediction made by Philippe Gijsels, head of fixed income research and marketing at BNP Paribas Fortis.

 “If history were once again to repeat itself and stock markets would once again see a tenfold increase over a period of 25 years, the next magical figure of 100,000 for the Dow could come into sight. It sounds spectacular. However, this is the move that we have already seen twice over the last 80 years.”

While we are still a long way from solving the worldwide debt crisis, Gijsels believes that inves tors will reap the rewards of patience in the form of massive returns. To understand how this will occur, Gijsels points to periods where the Dow had literally no progress but then made substantial turnarounds. These periods included the 22 years following the big crash of 1929, the period following high inflation of the 1970‘s, and then from 1982 to 2000 with the burst of the Internet bubble.

In fact, according to Sean Udall of the TechStrat Report, there are several reasons to expect the bulls to thrive. 

  • Long-term cash flows from such giants as Caterpillar, 3M, Apple, Google, IBM, McDonalds, and Coca-Cola.
  • Higher U.S. GDP which indicates that future economic activity will stay in the 2-3% range.
  • The impact of Europe’s recession on the U.S. GDP is being overstated.
  • With money markets paying next to nothing, ten-year treasuries below 2%, and solid corporations at 3%, stocks are the most attractive alternative to any other savings mechanism.
Though some challenges do lie ahead, a Dow 100,000 milestone is not unreachable. Investors with time and patience will be dutifully rewarded when the time comes.

 
 
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Think the bull market is losing steam?

Give the market more credit than that — investors in Visa, MasterCard and American Express sure are, trader and author Daryl Guppy says in a new CNBC post.

Despite the usual fluctuations, retail credit markets have been growing steadily since last year, Guppy reports. Since September 2011, Visa stock has risen from $75 to $125 — a 66 percent increase, he notes.
It’s a noteworthy number, because when the 2008 recession hit, many American consumers shifted from credit cards to cash for purchases.

“Cash came out of the stock market,” according to Guppy’s post. “Cash was used to pay off credit cards and debt.”
As a result, consumption — and demand — plummeted.
But retail credit markets are pointing to persistent demand in the future.

“The chart of the Visa stock price,” Guppy concludes, “points the way to the future intentions of the U.S. consumer and they are bullish. This suggests that the Dow will recover momentum because this increase in personal credit demand will drive up consumption.

“For investors, the dips in the Dow trend are a long term buying opportunity.”
The key take-away here is that smart investors are always looking at what’s coming, not what happened last week. These numbers suggest what’s coming is a lot of reasons to invest now.
No holding back these bulls — Dow 100,000, here we come.

 
 
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The bulls are pawing as Dow 15,000 talk continues.

Perhaps the loudest and most credible of the bold prognosticators is Wharton School economics professor Jeremy Siegel, who’s predicting 15,000 — maybe even 17,000 — by the end of next year.

Siegel told Barron’s in a February cover story that he bases his calculations on 141 years of stock cycles and on the fact that earnings grew at double-digit rates through 2011 and have stayed strong so far this year.

The market, he told the magazine, is due for a dramatic upswing. By late 2013, the odds are two out of three for a Dow 15,000 and 50-50 for 17,000.

A few months farther into 2012, fewer experts are scoffing at projections like Siegel’s.

“While Dow 15,000 and 17,000 may sound like dramatic targets,” Barron’s reports, “from at least two perspectives — earnings and inflation — they are actually rather modest objectives.”

Siegel, meantime, is standing firm on his forecast, defending it again just the other day in an interview with CNBC.

“Even before Apple (which stunned Wall Street with an earnings report that far exceeded expectations) … earnings are up 10 percent year-over-year. Expectations were all down to 2 percent.”

Siegel’s not alone on that one.

Mike Holland, founder of New York-based Holland & Co., says in a Bloomberg Businessweek article that while many market observers are focusing on Apple, they’re missing the broadest market advances since at least 1990.

“Companies have done extremely well, and yet the valuations have gone down because of all of the headlines,” he tells Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg article also notes that 458 of the 479 stocks that have been in the S&P 500 since March 2009 have gone up.

By anybody’s math, sooner or later that’s going to add up to 15,000.